New Polling Data Confirms the Negative Effects of Election Denial on Republican Voters

Survey Released by the Center for Election Innovation and Research, Conducted by Echelon Insights

November 16, 2021

WASHINGTON, DC – The Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR) released a new poll of Republican voters today, conducted by Echelon Insights, detailing what Republicans believe about 2020 election integrity, and revealing how this might affect their future voting behavior. 

“This poll confirms that the campaign to discredit elections has grievously injured Republican voter confidence,” David Becker, JD, Executive Director and Founder of CEIR.  “One out of every six Republican voters say that they are less likely to vote in the midterms unless “forensic audits” are conducted across the country, which is both completely unnecessary and highly unlikely.”

“The evidence suggests that election denial could have a long-term negative effect on turnout, particularly among Republicans and Trump voters. As we enter another national election cycle, we’ll continue to monitor whether the constant lies about election rigging and stolen votes provide a disincentive for the voters who believe those lies to turn out and vote.”  

Becker has over 22 years of experience in elections, serving as a senior attorney with the US Department of Justice Voting Section in both the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, as well as leading the elections team at The Pew Charitable Trusts, prior to founding CEIR. 

Key Findings:

Confidence in How the 2020 Election Was Run and its Results

• Trust in local elections is high but wanes at the state and national level: 75% of GOP and Trump voters believe the 2020 elections were run very/somewhat well in their community; that drops to 61% at the state level and 32% nationwide. Confidence in the administration of elections at the state level is notably lower among GOP and Trump voters in Arizona (46%), Pennsylvania (40%), and Georgia (52%) than among the national sample.
• Less than one-third of GOP and Trump voters (32%) are confident that votes across the U.S. were counted accurately in 2020. Confidence remains low going into 2022, at 38%. 

Misperceptions About Voter and Election Fraud

• Overall, nearly half (48%) of GOP and Trump voters think occurrences of election officials deliberately miscounting votes in 2020 were fairly/extremely widespread. While this rate largely held in the other oversampled states, Arizona saw a proportion nearly 10 percentage points higher, at 57%.

Calls for “Forensic Audits” are Depressing GOP Voter Confidence

• Among GOP and Trump voters, 16% say they are less likely to vote in 2022 if no forensic audits are conducted. That’s four times the number who say they would be less likely to vote if forensic audits were conducted. “Forensic audits” aren’t an actual election practice, particularly when elections have been fully audited and verified under the law, as the 2020 election was over a year ago. Even when such an effort is undertaken, as in Arizona, they failed to find fraud or cast doubt on the outcome.
• 60% of GOP and Trump voters support forensic audits in every state and a plurality (47%) support forensic audits only in states Biden won.

About the Poll

The poll was conducted online by Echelon Insights from October 20-26, 2021. It surveyed 1,600 registered voters nationally with oversamples of 150 voters in three 2020 battleground states (AZ, GA, and PA) and one state conducting a competitive off-year gubernatorial election (VA). This poll has a total sampling error of +/-3.4683%.